For the better part of a week, there’s been a storm brewing on the models. First, consensus was that it was going to go offshore. Then, many of the models moved it inland. For one glorious model run, everything had lined up. And then—things diverged. Typical. Right now, we have the following (check out our weather page for nitty gritty on the resources used here).
GFS: Off the coast, no snow for anyone. (Previous to today, it was showing a good foot of snow for Northern New England.)
ECMWF: Inland, snow for the Dacks, Northern Vermont and NH, rain for everyone else.
GGEM: Splitting the difference, so more snow for Vermont and NH
NAM: Beginning to show the storm, more inland?
DGEX: The Dacks and especially the Saint Lawrence Valley get hit hardest
Reading the tea leaves: It seems that the models are starting to converge on an inland solution. However, run-to-run continuity has been subpar, and the GFS has been stubbornly offshore. The teleconnections look good, but there is no large high pressure to the north to keep things nice and cold. The various AFDs lean towards splitting the difference, but there’s a spread of several hundred miles. Still, it’s quite possible that there will be a swath of 1-2 feet of snow over New England, especially in the mountains. If this comes down, it will fall on to cold ground primed, perhaps, with a few inches of snow from the energy tonight and sticking around. Which could mean some damn good November skiing.